Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Tayyip Erdo\u011fan\u2019\u0131n Suriye ve Irak s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131nda bir ba\u015ftan di\u011fer ba\u015fa “g\u00fcvenli b\u00f6lge” olu\u015fturma emeline temas eden birtak\u0131m geli\u015fmeler ya\u015fan\u0131yor. Zap\u2019taki askeri kay\u0131plardan sonra Erdo\u011fan\u2019\u0131n bu meseleyi ABD, \u0130ran ve Irak taraflar\u0131yla ele almas\u0131 bekleniyordu ki bu minvalde giri\u015fimler geliyor. M\u0130T Ba\u015fkan\u0131 \u0130brahim Kal\u0131n\u2019\u0131n Ba\u011fdat\u2019ta Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Abd\u00fcllatif Re\u015fid, Ba\u015fbakan Muhammed \u015eiya el Sudani ve di\u011fer siyasi liderlerle yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler dikkat \u00e7ekiciydi. Resmi a\u00e7\u0131klamalarda s\u0131n\u0131r g\u00fcvenli\u011fi, PKK\u2019ye kar\u015f\u0131 m\u00fccadele, g\u00fcvenlik-ekonomi odakl\u0131 \u201cKalk\u0131nma Yolu Projesi\u201d ve sular\u0131n payla\u015f\u0131m\u0131 gibi konular \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karken Kal\u0131n\u2019\u0131n \u00f6zellikle S\u00fcleymaniye \u00fczerinde durdu\u011funu anl\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Ankara, PKK\u2019ye kar\u015f\u0131 K\u00fcrdistan Demokrat Partisi\u2019nde (KDP) g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc i\u015f birli\u011fini K\u00fcrdistan Yurtseverler Birli\u011fi\u2019nde (KYB) bulamay\u0131nca S\u00fcleymaniye\u2019yi hedefe koydu. ABD\u2019nin y\u00f6nlendirmesiyle KYB\u2019nin Suriye Demokratik G\u00fc\u00e7leri (SDG) ile ili\u015fkiler geli\u015ftirmesi S\u00fcleymaniye\u2019yi M\u0130T\u2019in operasyon alan\u0131na d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcrd\u00fc. Ankara, Ba\u011fdat\u2019la i\u015f birli\u011fini art\u0131r\u0131p K\u00fcrdistan\u2019daki partileri kendi askeri stratejisine g\u00f6re hizalamaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131rken bu konuda \u0130ran\u2019la da yol almak istiyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u0130ran Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 \u0130brahim Reisi\u2019nin iki kez ertelendikten sonra nihayet d\u00fcn ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen ziyaretinde PKK\u2019ye kar\u015f\u0131 \u00f6nlemleri art\u0131rman\u0131n yan\u0131 s\u0131ra iki \u00fclkenin \u00e7ak\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 Irak ve Suriye sahnesindeki durumun konu\u015fuldu\u011funu farz ediyoruz. Ankara-Tahran aras\u0131nda yak\u0131nla\u015fma sa\u011flan\u0131rsa T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin K\u00fcrdistan\u2019da y\u00fcr\u00fctt\u00fc\u011f\u00fc askeri operasyonlara kar\u015f\u0131 Irakl\u0131 akt\u00f6rlerden y\u00fckselen itirazlar geriletilebilir. Zor ama beklenti bu y\u00f6nde.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
***<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Beri tarafta ABD ile T\u00fcrkiye aras\u0131nda en az\u0131ndan NATO zemininde uyumlu gidi\u015fat\u0131n b\u00f6lgesel konulara yans\u0131malar\u0131 beklenebilir. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin, F\u0131rat\u2019\u0131n do\u011fusunda havadan operasyonlar\u0131na g\u00f6z yuman ama kara harek\u00e2t\u0131na ye\u015fil \u0131\u015f\u0131k yakmayan ABD\u2019nin b\u00f6lgedeki askeri varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6zden ge\u00e7irebilece\u011fine dair i\u015faretler geliyor. Bu da Ankara\u2019n\u0131n m\u00fcdahale planlar\u0131na ili\u015fkin senaryolar\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc bir kez daha a\u00e7\u0131yor. Washington\u2019da politika de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fine yol a\u00e7abilecek iki potansiyel fakt\u00f6rden s\u00f6z edilebilir: Biri Gazze\u2019deki sava\u015fa paralel olarak ABD\u2019nin Irak ve Suriye\u2019deki \u00fcslerine y\u00f6nelik \u0130ran ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 \u015eii milis g\u00fc\u00e7lerinden gelen sald\u0131r\u0131lar. Ki bu sald\u0131r\u0131lar Amerikal\u0131lar\u0131 yeniden risk de\u011ferlendirmesine itiyor. Di\u011feri, \u0130sve\u00e7\u2019in NATO \u00fcyeli\u011finin \u00f6n\u00fcndeki engeli kald\u0131rmas\u0131yla birlikte T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin Washington nezdinde alacakl\u0131 konuma ge\u00e7mesi. T\u00fcrk-Amerikan ili\u015fkilerindeki s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 s\u00fcre\u00e7 Ankara lehine de\u011fi\u015fim sergilerse Erdo\u011fan ABD\u2019den g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc esnekli\u011fi yeni m\u00fcdahaleler i\u00e7in f\u0131rsata d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcrebilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
***<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Peki Amerikan politikas\u0131nda de\u011fi\u015fiklik beklentisi ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i mi? Al Monitor\u2019dan Amberin Zaman\u2019\u0131n Amerikal\u0131 kaynaklardan aktard\u0131\u011f\u0131 bilgilere g\u00f6re Pentagon, Suriyeli K\u00fcrt m\u00fcttefiklerinin Suriye y\u00f6netimiyle ortakl\u0131k kurmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6ren bir plan \u00fczerinde duruyor. D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri\u2019nin Suriye politikas\u0131n\u0131 yeniden g\u00f6zden ge\u00e7irme \u00e7abalar\u0131 \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin katk\u0131lar\u0131\/g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fleri al\u0131nd\u0131. \u00d6nerilen stratejinin ana hatlar\u0131, Savunma Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n talebi \u00fczerine 19 Ocak\u2019ta Beyaz Saray Ulusal G\u00fcvenlik Konseyi\u2019nde D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri, CIA ve di\u011fer ilgili birimlerden yetkililerin kat\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir toplant\u0131da ele al\u0131nd\u0131. Zaman\u2019a konu\u015fan kaynaklar \u00f6nerinin i\u00e7eri\u011fini belirtmeden amac\u0131n SDG\u2019yi korumak oldu\u011funu vurguluyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u015eimdiye kadar Biden y\u00f6netimi Amerikal\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lerin \u00e7ekilmesinin g\u00fcndemde olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtiyordu. SDG Genel Komutan\u0131 Mazlum Abdi Kobani de Al Monitor\u2019a tepkisini \u201cBunu ilk kez duyuyorum. Demokratik bir gelecek i\u00e7in bizimle anlaml\u0131 bir diyalog kurmay\u0131 reddeden Esad rejimi ile ili\u015fkilerimizin durumu ve b\u0131rak\u0131n bizimkini, kendi topraklar\u0131n\u0131 I\u015e\u0130D’e kar\u015f\u0131 savunmaktan aciz Suriye Arap Ordusu\u2019nun durumu dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda bu kesinlikle uygulanamaz (\u2026) Hayretler i\u00e7indeyim ve bu \u00e7\u00fcr\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f plan\u0131n arkas\u0131ndaki mant\u0131\u011f\u0131 kavrayam\u0131yorum” diye dile getiriyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
***<\/p>\n\n\n\n
ABD\u2019nin eninde sonunda \u00e7ekilece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclse de politikay\u0131 g\u00f6zden ge\u00e7irme \u00e7abalar\u0131 eli kula\u011f\u0131nda bir \u00e7ekilmeye i\u015faret etmiyor. Resmi gerek\u00e7e I\u015e\u0130D\u2019le m\u00fccadele olsa da Amerikan varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n en \u00f6nemli gerek\u00e7esi \u0130srail\u2019in g\u00fcvenceye al\u0131nmas\u0131, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n b\u00f6lgesel rol\u00fcn\u00fcn zay\u0131flat\u0131lmas\u0131 ve Suriye\u2019nin eksen de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fine zorlanmas\u0131. Gazze\u2019deki sava\u015f devam ederken Biden y\u00f6netimi m\u00fccbir nedenler olmad\u0131k\u00e7a kolayca pozisyon de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fine gitmeyebilir. Se\u00e7ime haz\u0131rlan\u0131rken ilave siyasi maliyetlerden ka\u00e7\u0131nmas\u0131 beklenir. Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l Temsilciler Meclisi\u2019nde Suriye\u2019den \u00e7ekilme y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki tasar\u0131n\u0131n 103\u2019e kar\u015f\u0131 321 oyla reddedildi\u011fi dikkate al\u0131n\u0131rsa \u00e7ekilme hamlesinin y\u00f6netimi Kongre\u2019de zora sokaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclebilir. Eski Ba\u015fkan Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n \u00e7ekilme karar\u0131ndan vazge\u00e7mesinde de Kongre\u2019de kazan kald\u0131ran \u00fcyeler etkili olmu\u015ftu. 2021\u2019de Afganistan\u2019dan apar topar \u00e7ekilmenin m\u00fcttefikler aras\u0131nda yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fcnt\u00fcy\u00fc toparlamak ancak ertesi y\u0131l Ukrayna sava\u015f\u0131 ile m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olmu\u015ftu. \u015eimdi Biden y\u00f6netimi bir benzerinin Irak ve Suriye\u2019de tekrarlanmas\u0131ndan ka\u00e7\u0131nabilir. Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da zay\u0131fl\u0131k g\u00f6stergesinin \u0130ran, Rusya ve \u00c7in\u2019in i\u015fine yarayaca\u011f\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmesi hala belirleyici. Tabii Trump, Beyaz Saray\u2019a d\u00f6ner de Erdo\u011fan\u2019\u0131n bunalt\u0131c\u0131 telefonlar\u0131yla kar\u015f\u0131la\u015f\u0131rsa bir kez daha “Tamam Suriye senindir” diyebilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
***<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Farkl\u0131 \u00e7evrelerde Gazze sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131n da itmesiyle ABD\u2019nin Irak ve Suriye\u2019deki askeri varl\u0131\u011f\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 \u0130ran ile T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin birlikte hareket etme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 da konu\u015fuluyor. Bunun alt ba\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131nda PKK\u2019ye kar\u015f\u0131 ortak m\u00fccadele ve Suriye\u2019de K\u00fcrtlerin liderli\u011findeki fiili \u00f6zerk yap\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7\u00f6kertilmesi yer al\u0131yor. \u0130ki \u00fclkenin \u0130srail-Filistin politikalar\u0131 \u00e7ok uyumsuz oldu\u011fundan bunun ortak politikalar i\u00e7in kataliz\u00f6r olabilece\u011fi s\u00f6ylenemez. Ortakl\u0131k olacaksa bu Gazze\u2019den ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z olarak geli\u015febilir. Yine de bu \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fc \u00e7ok su kald\u0131r\u0131r. Evvela Suriye ve Irak\u2019ta birbirine \u00e7elme takan iki \u00fclkenin farkl\u0131 pozisyonlardan kaynaklanan derin \u00e7eli\u015fkileri gidermesi gerekir. Amerikan askeri varl\u0131\u011f\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kmak teorik olarak \u0130ran-T\u00fcrkiye yak\u0131nla\u015fmas\u0131 i\u00e7in zemin olu\u015fturabilir ama bu yeterli de\u011fil. Aralar\u0131ndaki sorunlara ra\u011fmen NATO zemininde ABD\u2019yle ortakl\u0131k pek \u00e7ok tercihin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Washington\u2019la sorun Suriye siyasetinin tamam\u0131nda de\u011fil K\u00fcrtler fasl\u0131nda beliriyor. Gecikmeli de olsa \u0130sve\u00e7\u2019in NATO\u2019ya sokulmas\u0131ndaki uyumluluk Ankara-Washington hatt\u0131ndaki gerilimleri epeyce emece\u011fi i\u00e7in Amerikan kar\u015f\u0131t\u0131 zemin d\u00fcnden daha kaygan hale geliyor. \u0130ran ile T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm \u00f6nerileri de taban tabana z\u0131t. Tahran, F\u0131rat\u2019\u0131n do\u011fusundaki meselenin tek tarafl\u0131 askeri harekatlarla de\u011fil ancak \u015eam-Ankara normalle\u015fmesiyle \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Amerikal\u0131lar da sonunda SDG\u2019yi Suriye y\u00f6netimiyle ortak etme fikrine geldi. (Tahminen SDG\u2019nin \u00f6zerkli\u011fini koruyan bir ortakl\u0131k teklifini pi\u015firiyor olabilirler.) T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin F\u0131rat\u2019\u0131n bat\u0131s\u0131nda Tel R\u0131fat\u2019\u0131 hedefe koyan son operasyon planlar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcndeki en \u00f6nemli engel \u0130ran\u2019d\u0131. Erdo\u011fan\u2019\u0131n ABD\u2019yle e\u015fg\u00fcd\u00fcm halinde Suriye y\u00f6netimine kar\u015f\u0131 geli\u015ftirdi\u011fi d\u00fc\u015fmanl\u0131k ve silahl\u0131 muhalif \u00f6rg\u00fctlere kalkan olmada g\u00f6sterdi\u011fi kararl\u0131l\u0131k \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n \u00f6nerisini sakatl\u0131yor. SDG\u2019nin Suriye ordusuna eklemlenmesi de Ankara\u2019n\u0131n g\u00f6rmek istedi\u011fi bir se\u00e7enek de\u011fil. Bunun yan\u0131 s\u0131ra \u0130ran askeri operasyonlar\u0131n hem Irak-K\u00fcrdistan hem Suriye taraf\u0131nda T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin kontrol alanlar\u0131n\u0131 geni\u015fletmesine yarad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyor ve bunu kendi stratejik kurgusuna tehdit olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Bu bak\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6zellikle Ba\u011fdat\u2019taki akt\u00f6rlerin pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 da etkiliyor. \u015eam \u00fczerinde \u0130ran etkisi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131d\u0131r ama hepten g\u00f6z ard\u0131 edilemez.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Bununla birlikte \u0130ran ve T\u00fcrkiye aras\u0131nda PKK\u2019ye kar\u015f\u0131 koordinasyon d\u00f6nemsel olarak yakalanabiliyor. T\u00fcrkiye ve \u0130ran Suriye ve Irak\u2019ta kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya gelirken PKK\u2019ye kar\u015f\u0131 e\u015fg\u00fcd\u00fcm geriledi. \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n PKK\u2019ye kar\u015f\u0131 siyaseti 2011\u2019de sa\u011flanan \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131zl\u0131k mutabakat\u0131ndan beri pragmatik ve \u00e7eli\u015fkili tercihler i\u00e7eriyor. S\u00f6zgelimi Suriye\u2019de ABD ile ortakl\u0131k y\u00fcz\u00fcnden Halk Koruma Birlikleri\u2019ne (YPG) k\u0131z\u0131p \u015eengal\u2019de \u015eengal Direni\u015f G\u00fc\u00e7leri\u2019ne (YB\u015e) destek verebiliyor ya da Irak K\u00fcrdistan\u0131\u2019nda \u0130ranl\u0131 K\u00fcrt partileri bombalarken PKK\/PJAK\u2019\u0131n \u00fcslerini g\u00f6rmezden gelebiliyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin Erbil\u2019den sonra S\u00fcleymaniye\u2019ye el atmas\u0131 da K\u00fcrdistan\u2019\u0131n bu yakas\u0131ndaki \u0130ran n\u00fcfuzuna kar\u015f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131k bir tehdit olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. \u0130ran Ba\u011fdat\u2019taki siyasi denklemin K\u00fcrt aya\u011f\u0131 olarak KYB\u2019nin \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131n\u0131 tercih ediyor. \u0130ki \u00fclke aras\u0131ndaki rekabet son y\u0131llarda \u00f6ylesine \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmac\u0131 bir boyut kazand\u0131 ki bunlar\u0131n kolayca gerileyebilece\u011fi beklentisi biraz naif\u00e7e.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
***<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Ba\u011fdat\u2019ta da T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin geni\u015fleyen askeri \u00fcsleri ve operasyonlar\u0131 art\u0131k artan oranda protesto konusu. Bunlar\u0131 sadece \u0130ran etkisine ba\u011flamak da yan\u0131lt\u0131c\u0131. Re\u015fid de Kal\u0131n\u2019a T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin S\u00fcleymaniye ve di\u011fer kentlerde Irak\u2019\u0131n egemenli\u011fin ihlal etti\u011fine dikkat \u00e7ekip iki kom\u015funun bu meseleleri kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 sayg\u0131 \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde ele almas\u0131 gerekti\u011fi mesaj\u0131 verdi. Ankara bu mesaj\u0131 almak niyetinde de\u011fil.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Yerel se\u00e7imlere giderken K\u00fcrtlerle yeni a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131m senaryolar\u0131 g\u00fcndemi tekrar i\u015fgal etse de halihaz\u0131rda d\u00fcmeni sava\u015ftan yana k\u0131rm\u0131\u015f olan Erdo\u011fan\u2019\u0131n ba\u015fka bir istikamet tutturmas\u0131 hayli \u015fa\u015f\u0131rt\u0131c\u0131 olur. E\u011fer ABD\u2019den arad\u0131\u011f\u0131 anlay\u0131\u015f\u0131 bulur \u0130ran\u2019la da ortak bir koordinatta bulu\u015fursa t\u00fcm g\u00fcney s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131nda kafaya koydu\u011fu g\u00fcvenli koridor plan\u0131nda \u0131srar edebilir. Ki Kal\u0131n da Ba\u011fdat\u2019ta \u201cOperasyonlar devam edecek\u201d mesaj\u0131 vermi\u015f. Irak\u2019\u0131n K\u00fcrdistan s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131nda yapabilece\u011fi fazla bir \u015fey yok. Ankara da kendini buradan dayat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Fehim Ta\u015ftekin<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Tayyip Erdo\u011fan\u2019\u0131n Suriye ve Irak s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131nda...<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":2452,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8],"tags":[],"manset":[],"class_list":["post-2451","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-sectiklerimiz"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/kolektifmucadele1.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2451","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/kolektifmucadele1.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/kolektifmucadele1.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kolektifmucadele1.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kolektifmucadele1.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2451"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/kolektifmucadele1.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2451\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2453,"href":"https:\/\/kolektifmucadele1.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2451\/revisions\/2453"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kolektifmucadele1.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2452"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/kolektifmucadele1.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2451"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kolektifmucadele1.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2451"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kolektifmucadele1.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2451"},{"taxonomy":"manset","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kolektifmucadele1.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/manset?post=2451"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}