Gazze\u2019deki soyk\u0131r\u0131m sava\u015f\u0131na paralel olarak Hizbullah\u2019\u0131n a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131 dayan\u0131\u015fma cephesinin, \u0130srail\u2019in L\u00fcbnan\u2019\u0131 yeniden i\u015fgal etmesine yol a\u00e7\u0131p a\u00e7mayaca\u011f\u0131na dair papatya fal\u0131 tutuluyor. \u201cL\u00fcbnan ikinci Gazze olur mu\u201d derken \u00e7ete i\u015fi bir cinayet \u00fclkenin mezhebi fay hatlar\u0131n\u0131 uyand\u0131rd\u0131. L\u00fcbnan G\u00fc\u00e7leri Partisi\u2019nin C\u00fcbeyl (Biblos) koordinat\u00f6r\u00fc Paskal S\u00fcleyman 7 Nisan\u2019da El Harbe\u2019deki bir taziyeden d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fte ka\u00e7\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131ktan sonra cesedi Suriye\u2019de bulundu. L\u00fcbnan G\u00fc\u00e7leri cinayetten Hizbullah\u2019\u0131 sorumlu tutup h\u0131nc\u0131n\u0131 Suriyeli m\u00fcltecilerden \u00e7\u0131karmaya kalk\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Beyrut-Trablus yolu kapat\u0131ld\u0131, Suriye plakal\u0131 ara\u00e7lar durdurulup i\u00e7indekiler darp edildi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hizbullah Genel Sekreteri Hasan Nasrallah, L\u00fcbnan G\u00fc\u00e7leri ve Ketaib Partisi yetkililerini 1975-1990\u2019daki i\u00e7 sava\u015f g\u00fcnlerini hat\u0131rlatan i\u011fren\u00e7 mezhepsel s\u00f6zler sarf etmekle su\u00e7lad\u0131. \u201cC\u00fcbeyl ve Kisrevan sakinlerini ter\u00f6rize etmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131lar ve tehdit mesajlar\u0131 g\u00f6nderdiler. Bu \u00e7ok tehlikeli bir ad\u0131m\u201d dedi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Tehlikeli gidi\u015fe Genelkurmay Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Joseph Avn h\u0131zl\u0131 m\u00fcdahale etti. Askeri \u0130stihbarat M\u00fcd\u00fcrl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc olay\u0131 \u00e7\u00f6zd\u00fc ve sorumlular yakaland\u0131. Sadece dini de\u011fil siyasi g\u00fcndemi de tayin eden Maruni Patri\u011fi Bi\u015fara Butros el Rai de bilgilendirildi. L\u00fcbnan ordusuna g\u00f6re b\u00f6lgede sicili kabar\u0131k bir ara\u00e7 h\u0131rs\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00e7etesinin d\u00f6rt \u00fcyesi S\u00fcleyman\u2019\u0131n otomobilini El Harbe\u2019de durdurdu. S\u00fcleyman direnince ba\u015f\u0131na silah kabzas\u0131yla vuruldu. Yaralanan S\u00fcleyman arac\u0131n bagaj\u0131na kapat\u0131ld\u0131. Sald\u0131rganlardan biri Kalamun sahilinde bir otele b\u0131rak\u0131ld\u0131. Bu arada S\u00fcleyman\u2019\u0131n \u00f6ld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc anla\u015f\u0131ld\u0131. \u00c7ete lideri di\u011fer \u00fc\u00e7 ki\u015fiden arac\u0131 Suriye\u2019ye ge\u00e7irmelerini ve cesetten kurtulmalar\u0131n\u0131 istedi. \u00c7ete \u00fcyeleri Hermel \u00fczerinden Suriye\u2019ye ge\u00e7ip talimat\u0131 yerine getirdi. Askeri istihbarat\u0131n verdi\u011fi bilgiler do\u011frultusunda Suriye Muhaberat\u0131 \u00fc\u00e7 ki\u015fiyi yakalay\u0131p teslim etti. L\u00fcbnan taraf\u0131nda da \u00e7eteyle ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 4 ki\u015fi yakaland\u0131. Hepsi Suriyeli. Tutuklananlar ifadelerinde o g\u00fcn iki ara\u00e7 ka\u00e7\u0131rma denemesinin ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z oldu\u011funu, \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc giri\u015fimin S\u00fcleyman\u2019a denk geldi\u011fini anlatt\u0131. Kamu otoritesinin olay\u0131 h\u0131zla \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcp taraflar\u0131 bilgilendirmesi, Hizbullah\u2019a kar\u015f\u0131 husumetine ra\u011fmen patri\u011fin itidal \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131s\u0131, H\u0131ristiyan Genelkurmay Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Avn\u2019\u0131n sorumlu ve profesyonel yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131 k\u0131v\u0131lc\u0131m\u0131n yang\u0131na d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fmesini \u00f6nledi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Ordu ve \u0130\u00e7i\u015fleri Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 olayda siyasi boyut olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 vurguluyor. Fakat L\u00fcbnan G\u00fc\u00e7leri \u201cAksi ispatlan\u0131ncaya kadar olay siyasi cinayettir\u201d diyor. Ama\u00e7 Hizbullah \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 kurmak.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u0130\u00e7 sava\u015f ve mezhep-din kavgas\u0131 y\u00fcz\u00fcnden basit bir cinayet \u2018cinayet\u2019 olam\u0131yor, kat\u0131ks\u0131z bir yolsuzluk \u2018yolsuzluk\u2019 say\u0131lam\u0131yor vs. Her melanet mezhebi-dini-siyasi hesapla\u015fmalara ba\u011flan\u0131yor; bu da g\u00fcc\u00fc ve g\u00fcr\u00fclt\u00fcs\u00fc bol olana dokunulmazl\u0131k kazand\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
***<\/p>\n\n\n\n
L\u00fcbnan G\u00fc\u00e7leri ve Ketaib, Suriye\/Hizbullah ekseninin istikrarl\u0131 d\u00fc\u015fman\u0131. Bu taraf ‘siyasi cinayet’ dedi\u011finde su\u00e7laman\u0131n adresi belli. Potansiyel olarak i\u00e7 sava\u015f\u0131 tutu\u015fturacak bir \u0131srar bu. 13 Nisan 1975\u2019te Ayn el Rummane’de kimli\u011fi belirsiz ki\u015filer kiliseye ate\u015f a\u00e7arak 4 ki\u015fiyi \u00f6ld\u00fcrm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Birka\u00e7 saat sonra Cemayel liderli\u011findeki Falanjistler Filistinlilerin bulundu\u011fu otob\u00fcs\u00fc taray\u0131p 30 ki\u015fiyi katletmi\u015fti. \u0130\u00e7 sava\u015fta milat i\u015fte bu faili me\u00e7hul sald\u0131r\u0131 ve \u2018Otob\u00fcs Katliam\u0131\u2019.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
L\u00fcbnan G\u00fc\u00e7leri ve Ketaib\u2019in ba\u015f\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7ekti\u011fi bloklar\u0131n Hizbullah\u2019a d\u00fc\u015fmanl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fcncel nedeni 8 Ekim\u2019den bu yana \u0130srail\u2019e cephe a\u00e7arak L\u00fcbnan\u2019\u0131 ate\u015fe atmas\u0131. \u0130srail\u2019in sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131ndan da Hizbullah\u2019\u0131 sorumlu tutuyorlar. Normal zamanlarda muhalefeti, Hizbullah\u2019\u0131n elindeki silahlara kar\u015f\u0131 koruyorlar. Hizbullah\u2019\u0131 devletin kurumlar\u0131n\u0131 esir almak, devlet i\u00e7inde devlet gibi davranmak, L\u00fcbnan\u2019\u0131n egemen bir devlete d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fmesini engellemekle su\u00e7luyorlar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Husumetin derinliklerinde, i\u00e7 sava\u015f g\u00fcnlerinde \u0130srail\u2019le birlikte gelecek hayali kuranlar\u0131n ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131 hezimet yat\u0131yor. 1970\u2019lerden itibaren \u0130srail\u2019in L\u00fcbnan\u2019\u0131n g\u00fcneyindeki ta\u015feronlu\u011funu \u00d6zg\u00fcr L\u00fcbnan G\u00fc\u00e7leri\/G\u00fcney L\u00fcbnan Ordusu yap\u0131yordu. G\u00fcneyde i\u015fgal kar\u015f\u0131tlar\u0131n\u0131n tutuldu\u011fu El Hiyam hapishanesinin gardiyanlar\u0131 bunlard\u0131. O vakitler \u00dcrd\u00fcn\u2019den \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lan Filistin Kurtulu\u015f \u00d6rg\u00fct\u00fc (FK\u00d6) L\u00fcbnan\u2019\u0131n g\u00fcneyinde \u00fcslenmi\u015fti. \u0130srail FK\u00d6\u2019n\u00fcn pe\u015fini b\u0131rakmazken Saad Haddad\u2019\u0131n liderli\u011findeki G\u00fcney L\u00fcbnan Ordusu da Filistinlilerin devlet i\u00e7inde devlet haline geldi\u011fini \u00f6ne s\u00fcr\u00fcp temizli\u011fe giri\u015fmi\u015fti. \u0130srail bu milisleri e\u011fitti, silaha bo\u011fdu ve maa\u015fa ba\u011flad\u0131. \u0130srail\u2019in 1978\u2019deki Litani Operasyonu\u2019nun ard\u0131ndan milisler L\u00fcbnan\u2019\u0131n g\u00fcneyini Yahudi devleti i\u00e7in g\u00fcvenli b\u00f6lgeye d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcrmekle kalmay\u0131p de facto \u201c\u00d6zg\u00fcr L\u00fcbnan\u201d devletini ilan etti. Milis ordusu Tel Aviv\u2019den her y\u0131l 35 milyon dolar al\u0131rken aile fertleri de \u0130srail\u2019de seyahat ve \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma ayr\u0131cal\u0131\u011f\u0131na sahipti. Ortalama kazanc\u0131n 10 kat\u0131na denk gelecek \u015fekilde milis ba\u015f\u0131na 500-800 dolar maa\u015f verdi\u011finden b\u00f6lgedeki \u015eii ve D\u00fcrzileri de saflar\u0131na katm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Be\u015fir Cemayel\u2019in L\u00fcbnan G\u00fc\u00e7leri ise \u0130srail\u2019in 1982\u2019deki yeniden i\u015fgali s\u0131ras\u0131nda Beyrut\u2019ta L\u00fcbnan\u2019\u0131n \u201cVichy H\u00fck\u00fcmeti\u201d olmaya talipti. Filistinlilerin kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 Sabra ve \u015eatilla kamplar\u0131ndaki katliamlar\u0131 \u0130srail\u2019in koordinat\u00f6rl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde bunlar ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi. Katliam cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 se\u00e7ilen Cemayel\u2019e d\u00fczenlenen bombal\u0131 suikast\u0131n ard\u0131ndan gelmi\u015fti. Sald\u0131rgan da L\u00fcbnanl\u0131 bir H\u0131ristiyan idi. 1982\u2019deki i\u015fgal FK\u00d6 liderlerinin Tunus\u2019a s\u00fcr\u00fclmesini sa\u011flad\u0131. 1984\u2019te \u00f6len Haddad\u2019\u0131n yerini Antoine Lahad al\u0131rken sahneye yeni \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015f olan Hizbullah ve \u015eiilerin y\u0131llanm\u0131\u015f partisi Emel Hareketi g\u00fcneyde direni\u015f ba\u015flatt\u0131. \u0130srail ordusu 2000\u2019de L\u00fcbnan\u2019dan \u00e7ekilmek zorunda kal\u0131rken i\u015fbirlik\u00e7i g\u00fc\u00e7ler i\u015fgalcilerin ard\u0131 s\u0131ra ka\u00e7m\u0131\u015ft\u0131. \u00d6zeti, o g\u00fcnlerden kalma bir kuyruk ac\u0131s\u0131 var. Eski bir hesapla\u015fma yeni gerek\u00e7elerle g\u00fcncellenip duruyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u0130\u00e7 sava\u015fta i\u015flenen su\u00e7lar Taif Anla\u015fmas\u0131 ve af yasas\u0131 sayesinde sava\u015f a\u011falar\u0131n\u0131n yan\u0131na k\u00e2r kal\u0131rken Semir Caca, 1994\u2019te bir kilisenin bombalanmas\u0131 sonras\u0131nda tutukland\u0131 ve \u00f6nceki cinayetlerden 4 kez m\u00fcebbet hapse mahkum edildi. 2015\u2019te Suriye\u2019nin L\u00fcbnan\u2019dan \u00e7ekilmesine neden olan Hariri suikast\u0131 sonras\u0131 Bat\u0131-K\u00f6rfez destekli r\u00fczg\u00e2r sayesinde hapisten kurtuldu. Caca d\u00f6nd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnden beri Hizbullah kar\u015f\u0131t\u0131 eksende ba\u015f\u0131 \u00e7ekiyor. Ketaib lideri Sami Cemayel de ondan geri kalm\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
***<\/p>\n\n\n\n
L\u00fcbnan G\u00fc\u00e7leri ve Ketaib\u2019in \u00f6zellikle Suriye d\u00fc\u015fmanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 sars\u0131lmaz. Ne gariptir ki Suriye ordusu 1976\u2019da Arap Birli\u011fi\u2019nin g\u00f6revlendirmesiyle \u201cArap Cayd\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 G\u00fcc\u00fc\u201d olarak L\u00fcbnan\u2019a girerken ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7taki motivasyon H\u0131ristiyanlar\u0131 korumakt\u0131. D\u00fcrz\u00ee \u0130lerici Sosyalist Partisi\u2019nin lideri Kemal Canbolat, FK\u00d6\u2019n\u00fcn yan\u0131 s\u0131ra t\u00fcm M\u00fcsl\u00fcman ve solcu g\u00fc\u00e7leri birle\u015ftirip H\u0131ristiyanlar\u0131 haritadan silmekten s\u00f6z ediyordu. Bu konuda Suriye lideri Haf\u0131z el Esad ile sert tart\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 oldu. Canbolat \u201cTepemizde 140 y\u0131ld\u0131r duran H\u0131ristiyanlardan kurtulmak istiyoruz\u201d derken Esad bu t\u00fcr bir sava\u015f\u0131n \u0130srail\u2019e yarayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yl\u00fcyordu. Ne var ki Suriye ordusu s\u0131rayla b\u00fct\u00fcn fraksiyonlarla \u00e7at\u0131\u015ft\u0131. \u0130\u015f \u00f6yle bir noktaya geldi ki Beyrut\u2019ta bir cinayet i\u015flense has\u0131m taraflar bunu Suriye ordusundan biliyordu. Bug\u00fcn Suriye\u2019nin m\u00fcttefiki olan Hizbullah, L\u00fcbnan denklemindeki son girdi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Fakat ne H\u0131ristiyanlar ne D\u00fcrziler ne de S\u00fcnni M\u00fcsl\u00fcmanlar yekpare. Saflar bug\u00fcnk\u00fc kadar olmasa da eskiden de kar\u0131\u015f\u0131kt\u0131. Mesela 1988\u2019de Antoine Lahad\u2019a suikast giri\u015fiminde bulunan tetik\u00e7i Kom\u00fcnist Partisi\u2019nin kad\u0131n militan\u0131 S\u00fcha Bi\u015fara\u2019yd\u0131. Yakla\u015f\u0131k 5 bin ki\u015finin i\u015fkenceden ge\u00e7irildi\u011fi El Hiyam\u2019\u0131n mahpuslar\u0131 aras\u0131nda Bi\u015fara gibi i\u015fgale kar\u015f\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kan H\u0131ristiyanlar da vard\u0131. H\u0131ristiyanlar aras\u0131nda Suriye yanl\u0131s\u0131 ve kar\u015f\u0131t\u0131 yap\u0131lar hep olageldi. Suriye\u2019nin L\u00fcbnan\u2019dan kovdu\u011fu eski Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Mi\u015fel Avn da 2005\u2019te \u00fclkeye d\u00f6nd\u00fckten sonra 2006 sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131 m\u00fcteakiben Hizbullah\u2019la ittifak kurdu. Mar Mihail Kilisesi\u2019nde var\u0131lan mutabakat, 1989\u2019da i\u00e7 sava\u015f\u0131 bitiren Taif Anla\u015fmas\u0131\u2019ndan muaf tutulan Hizbullah\u2019\u0131n silahlar\u0131na veda etmesini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyordu ama bunu iki ko\u015fula ba\u011fl\u0131yordu: L\u00fcbnan ordusunun \u0130srail\u2019e kar\u015f\u0131 \u00fclkeyi koruyacak duruma gelmesi ve \u0130srail hapishanelerindeki L\u00fcbnanl\u0131lar\u0131n b\u0131rak\u0131lmas\u0131. Bu mutabakat bilahare Avn\u2019\u0131 cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 yapt\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
***<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hizbullah\u2019\u0131n 2013\u2019te Suriye sava\u015f\u0131na kat\u0131lmas\u0131 ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7ta elindeki silahlar\u0131n me\u015fruiyetini tart\u0131\u015fmaya a\u00e7t\u0131. Ama bu hamleyle ayn\u0131 zamanda cihat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131n L\u00fcbnan\u2019\u0131 silip s\u00fcp\u00fcrmesini engelledi\u011fi i\u00e7in H\u0131ristiyanlar da m\u00fcte\u015fekkir kald\u0131. Hizbullah son se\u00e7imde halk deste\u011fini koruyarak me\u015fruiyet krizi ya\u015famad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi. Fakat ekonomik ve siyasi krizlere ilaveten Gazze sava\u015f\u0131 L\u00fcbnan\u2019\u0131n eski \u00e7atlaklar\u0131na barut dolduruyor. L\u00fcbnan G\u00fc\u00e7leri ve Ketaib\u2019in kronik d\u00fc\u015fmanl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n yan\u0131 s\u0131ra \u00d6zg\u00fcr Yurtsever Hareketi\u2019nin de\u011fi\u015fen tutumu ve Maruni Patri\u011fi Rai\u2019nin artan oranda muhalefeti Hizbullah\u2019a kar\u015f\u0131 H\u0131ristiyan mahalledeki havay\u0131 iyice bozuyor. \u00d6zg\u00fcr Vatansever Hareketi liderli\u011fini kay\u0131npederi Mi\u015fel Avn\u2019dan devralan Cibran Basil k\u0131sa bir s\u00fcre \u00f6ncesine kadar Hizbullah\u2019\u0131n orta\u011f\u0131yd\u0131. Hizbullah\u2019\u0131n, Avn\u2019\u0131 Baabda Saray\u0131\u2019na ta\u015f\u0131yan deste\u011fini Basil\u2019den esirgemesi y\u00fcz\u00fcnden araya kara kedi girdi. Hizbullah-Emel ikilisi ayr\u0131ca kar\u015f\u0131 H\u0131ristiyan blok kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda zay\u0131f kalan ve tart\u0131\u015fmal\u0131 bir fig\u00fcre d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fen Basil\u2019i s\u0131rt\u0131nda ta\u015f\u0131mak istemiyor. G\u00f6rev s\u00fcresi dolan Avn 2022\u2019de yeni cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 se\u00e7ilmeden saray\u0131 terk etti\u011finden beri \u015eii ikilinin aday\u0131 Suriye ile aras\u0131 iyi olan Marada Hareketi lideri S\u00fcleyman Franciye. Avn ve Basil, L\u00fcbnan\u2019\u0131n Gazze i\u00e7in ate\u015fe at\u0131lmas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 \u00e7\u0131karken Marada Hizbullah\u2019la dayan\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 koruyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u015eimdi H\u0131ristiyan partiler El Rai liderli\u011finde Bkirki’de ortak vizyon belgesi \u00e7\u0131karmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. Hizbullah\u2019\u0131n silahs\u0131zland\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 belgeye sokma aray\u0131\u015f\u0131 var. L\u00fcbnan G\u00fc\u00e7leri “Metin \u00fclkenin ana belas\u0131n\u0131 yani Hizbullah’\u0131n silahlar\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a ele almal\u0131d\u0131r” diyor. Ketaib de destek \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Patrik giderek bu iki partiye kay\u0131yor. Ge\u00e7en hafta Nasrallah, \u0130srail\u2019in L\u00fcbnan\u2019a topyek\u00fbn sald\u0131rmas\u0131 halinde sava\u015fa haz\u0131r olduklar\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yleyince Rai \u201cSava\u015f bir ki\u015fi ya da partinin verebilece\u011fi bir karar de\u011fildir\u201d diye \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131. \u201cAradaki adam\u201d konumundaki Meclis Ba\u015fkan\u0131 ve Emel lideri Nebih Berri ise \u201cSava\u015fa s\u00fcr\u00fcklenmeyece\u011fiz ve itidal g\u00f6stermeye devam edece\u011fiz” diyerek Nasrallah ile Rai aras\u0131ndaki gerilimi emmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Bir d\u00f6nem oturdu\u011fu D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 koltu\u011funu Hizbullah\u2019a bor\u00e7lu olan Basil de “\u0130srail’i ma\u011flup edebileceklerini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnenler yan\u0131lg\u0131 i\u00e7inde” dedi. \u0130\u015fte bu restle\u015fme ortam\u0131nda \u201cBkirki Belgesi\u201d pi\u015firiliyor. Marada, Hizbullah\u2019\u0131n silahlar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fcndeme al\u0131nmas\u0131 nedeniyle Bkirki\u2019ye gitmezken \u00d6zg\u00fcr Yurtsever Hareketi cumhurba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u015fans\u0131n\u0131 hepten kaybetmemek i\u00e7in ikircikli oynuyor. Hizbullah kar\u015f\u0131t\u0131 bir belgenin \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 cumhurba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 meselesini hepten karma\u015f\u0131k hale getirebilir. (Mezhep\u00e7i b\u00f6l\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm sistemine g\u00f6re cumhurba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve merkez bankas\u0131 ba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 Marunilere ayr\u0131lm\u0131\u015f durumda. \u0130kisi de bo\u015f.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n
***<\/p>\n\n\n\n
E\u011fer \u0130srail y\u0131k\u0131c\u0131 bir sava\u015f ba\u015flat\u0131rsa Hizbullah\u2019\u0131n gelece\u011fini tayin eden sonu\u00e7lara neden olabilir. 2006\u2019da \u0130srail\u2019in hezimeti Hizbullah\u2019\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir siyasi akt\u00f6re d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcrd\u00fc. Aksi bir sonu\u00e7 hik\u00e2yeyi ba\u015fka y\u00f6nde yazd\u0131r\u0131r. Hizbullah 8 Ekim’den bu yana \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 iyi kalibre etse de \u0130srail\u2019in Gazze\u2019den sonra L\u00fcbnan\u2019a y\u00f6nelme ihtimali herkesi korkutuyor. Sava\u015f\u0131n b\u00f6lgeselle\u015fmesini istemeyen ABD, L\u00fcbnan taraf\u0131nda ta\u015flar\u0131 ba\u011flamaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. B\u00fct\u00fcn \u00e7aba BM G\u00fcvenlik Konseyi\u2019nin 1701 nolu karar\u0131 \u00fczerinden Hizbullah\u2019\u0131 Litani nehrinin kuzeyine \u00e7ekmeye y\u00f6nelik. \u0130\u00e7 sava\u015f senaryosu ve L\u00fcbnan\u2019\u0131n iktisaden fi\u015finin \u00e7ekilmesi, bask\u0131 stratejisinin iki ana ba\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 olu\u015fturuyor. Hizbullah \u00e7ekilmez ve \u0130srail\u2019in kuzeyini terk eden yerle\u015fimciler geri d\u00f6nemezse Yahudi devleti tarihinin en b\u00fcy\u00fck yenilgisini ya\u015fam\u0131\u015f olacak. \u0130srail bunu \u2018varl\u0131k-yokluk\u2019 meselesi say\u0131yor. Ba\u015fbakan Necib Mikati, 2006\u2019da \u0130srail-Amerikan dayatmalar\u0131na boyun e\u011fen Fuad Sinyora’n\u0131n aksine dengeli gidiyor; \u201cGazze\u2019de ate\u015fkes olursa Hizbullah da \u00e7ekilir\u201d mesaj\u0131 veriyor. Hem Hizbullah\u2019a bask\u0131 yapma \u015fans\u0131 yok hem de ko\u015fullar farkl\u0131. \u015eii ikilinin onay\u0131n\u0131 almayan herhangi bir aday\u0131n ne ba\u015fbakan ne de cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 olma \u015fans\u0131 var. Amerikan-Frans\u0131z bask\u0131 mekanizmas\u0131 bile L\u00fcbnan\u2019daki dayanak noktalar\u0131n\u0131 kaybetmemek i\u00e7in k\u0131l\u0131 k\u0131rk yar\u0131yor. Hizbullah ise Gazze\u2019deki sava\u015f\u0131n bitirilmesine ilaveten g\u00fcneyden \u00e7ekilmek i\u00e7in L\u00fcbnan topraklar\u0131ndaki i\u015fgalin bitirilmesi ve \u00fclkenin kara, hava ve deniz egemenli\u011finin garanti edilmesi ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131 m\u00fczakere masas\u0131na koymak istiyor. L\u00fcbnanl\u0131 kaynaklara g\u00f6re Amerikal\u0131lar Hizbullah\u2019a \u201cLitani\u2019nin kuzeyinden \u00e7ekil, istedi\u011fin ki\u015fi cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 olsun\u201d s\u00f6z\u00fcn\u00fc de veriyor. Ama Hizbullah g\u00fcneydeki durumun cumhurba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ile ili\u015fkilendirilmesini reddediyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Ceca ve Cemayel ise hala \u201c\u0130srail gelir, Hizbullah\u2019\u0131 yok eder\u201d senaryosuna g\u00f6re ak\u0131l y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fcyor. Kafa 1978 ve 1982\u2019dekinden farks\u0131z. Bu liderlerin i\u00e7 sava\u015f \u00e7\u0131karmaya yetecek k\u0131\u015fk\u0131rtma, kumpas ve komplo potansiyeli de tart\u0131\u015fma g\u00f6t\u00fcrmez. Yeniden \u201cLi Beyrut\u201d diye yakarma zaman\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Gazete Duvar<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Fehim Ta\u015ftekin<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Gazze\u2019deki soyk\u0131r\u0131m sava\u015f\u0131na paralel olarak Hizbullah\u2019\u0131n a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131...<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":3004,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8],"tags":[],"manset":[],"class_list":["post-3003","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-sectiklerimiz"],"amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/kolektifmucadele1.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3003","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/kolektifmucadele1.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/kolektifmucadele1.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kolektifmucadele1.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kolektifmucadele1.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3003"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/kolektifmucadele1.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3003\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3005,"href":"https:\/\/kolektifmucadele1.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3003\/revisions\/3005"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kolektifmucadele1.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3004"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/kolektifmucadele1.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3003"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kolektifmucadele1.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3003"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kolektifmucadele1.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3003"},{"taxonomy":"manset","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kolektifmucadele1.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/manset?post=3003"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}