Suriye siyaseti i\u00e7in “stratejik \u00e7ukur” demi\u015ftik demesine de s\u00fcre\u00e7 giderek yarat\u0131c\u0131 rezillik tablosu sunuyor. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin ulusal sava\u015f ayg\u0131tlar\u0131yla e\u011fitip donatt\u0131\u011f\u0131 Suriye Milli Ordusu\u2019nu (SMO) ter\u00f6r \u00f6rg\u00fctleri listesine ekledi\u011fi Heyet Tahrir el \u015eam\u2019a (HT\u015e) d\u00f6vd\u00fcrt\u00fcyor. Muhte\u015fem bir gidi\u015fat! Pek \u00e7ok okurumun “Beter olsunlar” dedi\u011fini kestirebiliyorum. 11 Ekim\u2019den bu yana ya\u015fanan geli\u015fmeler, “HT\u015e, T\u00fcrkiye destekli gruplar\u0131 \u0130dlib\u2019de oldu\u011fu gibi Zeytin Dal\u0131 ve F\u0131rat Kalkan\u0131 b\u00f6lgelerinde silmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor” diye aktar\u0131lsa da tablo biraz daha karma\u015f\u0131k.
Temelde s\u00f6ylenmesi gerekenler var: Hepsi Erdo\u011fan\u2019\u0131n himmetinden yararland\u0131lar. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin kap\u0131lar\u0131 hepsine a\u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. TSK, Suriye ordusunun ilerlemesini \u00f6nlemek i\u00e7in demir perde oluverdi. Bu kalkanla korundular. Her biri “Suriye\u2019yi halletme” projesinin par\u00e7as\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Gelelim olup bitenlere ve aralar\u0131ndaki n\u00fcanslara!<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u00d6teki ortak, rakip ve has\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 elimine ederek \u0130dlib\u2019i tekeline al\u0131p “\u0130slami emirlik oyununu” sahneleyen HT\u015e, 11 Ekim\u2019de Afrin\u2019i ele ge\u00e7irmek \u00fczere harekete ge\u00e7ti. 2018\u2019de Zeytin Dal\u0131 Harek\u00e2t\u0131 ile Halk Koruma Birlikleri\u2019nin (YPG) elinden al\u0131n\u0131p ya\u011fmac\u0131 SMO gruplar\u0131na teslim edilen Afrin. Tabii HT\u015e bu hamlede SMO\u2019dan ba\u015fka gruplar\u0131 da yede\u011fine ald\u0131. Kim bunlar? Hamza T\u00fcmeni, S\u00fcleyman \u015eah T\u00fcmeni (Ebu Am\u015fa) ve Ahrar\u2019u\u015f \u015eam. \u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fcs\u00fc b\u00f6lgenin dokusuna has bir El Kaide mamul\u00fc. Kimine g\u00f6re bu \u00fc\u00e7 \u00f6rg\u00fct HT\u015e i\u00e7in Truva at\u0131. HT\u015e\u2019nin hedefinde ise SMO i\u00e7indeki \u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc Kolordu\u2019nun \u00f6nc\u00fc g\u00fcc\u00fc Cephet\u2019\u00fc\u015f \u015eamiye (\u015eam Cephesi) ve \u015eam k\u0131rsal\u0131ndan s\u00fcr\u00fclm\u00fc\u015f Cey\u015f\u2019ul \u0130slam (\u0130slam Ordusu) var. Bir de arada kalan ya da direni\u015fi k\u0131sa s\u00fcren \u00f6rg\u00fctlerden s\u00f6z edilebilir.
Yani ko\u00e7ba\u015f\u0131 HT\u015e ama SMO unsurlar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 SMO unsurlar\u0131 sava\u015f\u0131n i\u00e7inde.
13 Ekim itibariyle Afrin’in g\u00fcneyinden merkezine do\u011fru HT\u015e’nin, bat\u0131s\u0131 S\u00fcleyman \u015eah’\u0131n, kuzeybat\u0131s\u0131 Hamza\u2019n\u0131n eline ge\u00e7erken Cephet\u2019\u00fc\u015f \u015eamiye Azez\u2019e do\u011fru Kfar Cennet\u2019te tutundu. Afrin d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda El Bab ve Halep\u2019in kuzey-kuzeybat\u0131 k\u0131rsal\u0131nda da birka\u00e7 yer el de\u011fi\u015ftirdi.
T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin g\u00f6z yummas\u0131 ya da r\u0131zas\u0131 olmadan Afrin\u2019e b\u00f6yle dalabilirler mi? T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin HT\u015e\u2019yi \u00f6nlemedi\u011fi kesin. \u00c7\u0131kar\u0131m\u0131 kolayla\u015ft\u0131racak i\u015faretler var. T\u00fcrkiye ile y\u00fcksek g\u00fcd\u00fcme sahip M\u00fcsl\u00fcman Karde\u015fler\u2019le ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 Feylak\u2019u\u015f \u015eam, Afrin\u2019in g\u00fcneyden giri\u015f kap\u0131s\u0131 Deyr Balut\u2019ta (Cinderes) HT\u015e\u2019ye direnmedi, hatta yol verdi. Sorarsan\u0131z “Karde\u015f kan\u0131 d\u00f6kmemek i\u00e7in” derler. Maslahatt\u0131r! Cinderes\u2019te Suriye\u2019nin do\u011fusundan gelen Ahrar\u2019u\u015f \u015earkiyye ve Cey\u015f\u2019u\u015f \u015earkiyye de Cinderes\u2019te g\u00f6stermelik bir direni\u015f sergiledi. \u0130dlib ve Hama k\u0131rsal\u0131nda yap\u0131p ettikleri nedeniyle SMO i\u00e7inde HT\u015e alerjisi y\u00fcksek. Haliyle HT\u015e\u2019nin kontrol alan\u0131n\u0131n geni\u015flemesine kar\u015f\u0131 g\u00f6steriler yap\u0131l\u0131yor. Kendilerini “mutedil” olarak g\u00f6ren Suriyeli fig\u00fcrlerin 2014\u2019te \u0130stanbul\u2019da kurdu\u011fu Suriye \u0130slami Meclisi de HT\u015e\u2019ye kar\u015f\u0131 genel direni\u015f \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131s\u0131 yapt\u0131. Bunlar\u0131n bir seferberli\u011fi tetikleme kapasitesi yok.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Sonu\u00e7ta T\u00fcrkiye bu dramatik geli\u015fmeler kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda \u2018sessiz\u2019 kald\u0131. Ama ilgisiz de\u011fildi. Bir kere Zeytin Dal\u0131 ve F\u0131rat Kalkan\u0131 b\u00f6lgelerinde gruplar aras\u0131 \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar eksik olmasa da bir b\u00f6lgenin el de\u011fi\u015ftirmesi anlam\u0131na gelen tank destekli bir harek\u00e2t\u0131n T\u00fcrkiye\u2019den habersiz ya da onays\u0131z olmas\u0131 mant\u0131k d\u0131\u015f\u0131. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin rol\u00fc ya da konumu \u015f\u00fcphe alt\u0131nda: Koordineli bir harekat oldu\u011funa dair bilgi olmasa da z\u0131mni onay ya da g\u00f6z yumma illaki var.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Bununla neyi murat etmi\u015f olabilirler?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u00d6nce hat\u0131rlat\u0131lmas\u0131 gereken arka plandan s\u00f6z etmeli:
HT\u015e\u2019nin \u00f6nc\u00fcs\u00fc Nusra Cephesi\u2019nin ter\u00f6r \u00f6rg\u00fctleri listesine eklenmesinden alenen mutsuz olan tek lider Recep Tayyip Erdo\u011fan\u2019d\u0131. Ne var ki BM karar\u0131 gere\u011fi T\u00fcrkiye de HT\u015e\u2019yi ter\u00f6r \u00f6rg\u00fctleri listesine eklemek zorundayd\u0131. Erdo\u011fan\u2019a g\u00f6re rejimi de\u011fi\u015ftirmeye niyet etmi\u015fken Nusra\u2019ya ter\u00f6rist demenin ne zaman\u0131yd\u0131 ne de l\u00fczumu vard\u0131. Nusra\u2019n\u0131n, I\u015e\u0130D\u2019in Suriye\u2019deki orijinal yap\u0131lanmas\u0131 olmas\u0131 \u00e7ok da umurunda de\u011fildi. Ama Nusra\/HT\u015e\u2019nin ter\u00f6r \u00f6rg\u00fct\u00fc listesine girmesi Erdo\u011fan\u2019\u0131n bu \u00f6rg\u00fcte ili\u015fkin tavr\u0131nda de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fe neden olmad\u0131. 2015\u2019te \u0130dlib\u2019i ele ge\u00e7iren Fetih Ordusu\u2019nda \u00f6nc\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7t\u00fc. \u00d6zg\u00fcr Suriye Ordusu bile\u015fenlerini \u0130dlib\u2019den s\u00fcp\u00fcrmeseydi iyiydi ama daha sonra T\u00fcrk ordusunun Astana Mutabakatlar\u0131 \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde b\u00f6lgeye konu\u015flanmas\u0131na ses \u00e7\u0131karmayarak iyi bir ortak olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi. TSK de \u0130dlib\u2019in \u00e7eperlerindeki kalkan rol\u00fcyle HT\u015e\u2019yi koruyup kollad\u0131. Kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k fazlas\u0131yla verilmi\u015fti. Bunun i\u00e7in T\u00fcrk askerleri \u00f6ld\u00fc. M\u0130T\u2019in HT\u015e ile koordinasyonu da fena say\u0131lmaz. En kritik operasyonlar bu b\u00f6lgede olurken aralar\u0131nda temas olmadan ne m\u00fcmk\u00fcn! HT\u015e b\u00f6lgede T\u00fcrk liras\u0131n\u0131 tedav\u00fcle sokarak da bu ortakl\u0131\u011fa ekonomik boyut katt\u0131. Kurtulu\u015f H\u00fck\u00fcmeti \u00fczerinden Bab el Heva s\u0131n\u0131r kap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 da kontrol ediyorlar. Yani s\u0131n\u0131r kap\u0131s\u0131 HT\u015e\u2019ye \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. Uluslararas\u0131 yard\u0131mlardan onlar da nemalan\u0131yor. El Kaide \u00e7izgisi bu iyili\u011fi d\u00fcnyan\u0131n neresinde g\u00f6rebilir? Taliban bile bu kadar\u0131n\u0131 verebilmi\u015f de\u011fildi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Fakat bir yerden sonra kar\u0131n a\u011fr\u0131s\u0131 beliriyor: Erdo\u011fan, Be\u015f\u015far el Esad\u2019la kucakla\u015fmak i\u00e7in pe\u015frev \u00e7ekiyor. Patron Vladimir Putin\u2019in te\u015fvikleriyle! \u015eam\u2019la bar\u0131\u015fa niyetlendilerse bu \u00f6rg\u00fctlerle ilgili iki yol izlenebilir:
\u0130lki \u00f6rg\u00fctler aras\u0131ndaki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalara son verip g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir muhatapl\u0131k olu\u015fturmak. \u0130slamc\u0131 alternatifi \u015eam\u2019a ta\u015f\u0131yacak bir g\u00fc\u00e7 birli\u011fi! Bunun i\u00e7in HT\u015e gibi daha homojen-organize bir yap\u0131 di\u011ferlerini hizaya getirebilir. Ganimet k\u00fclt\u00fcr\u00fc hepsinin mayas\u0131nda ama HT\u015e’nin di\u011ferlerine k\u0131yasla yap\u0131sal taraf\u0131 ve ideolojik kodlar\u0131 daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc. Bu da sevk ve idare kapasitesini art\u0131r\u0131yor. HT\u015e\u2019yi \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma ve nihayetinde ter\u00f6r \u00f6rg\u00fctleri listesinden \u00e7\u0131karma gibi akl\u0131 evvel \u00f6nermeler de devrede. Evrensel a\u011flara sahip El Kaide\u2019ye ba\u011fl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bitir, m\u00fccadeleni Suriye ile s\u0131n\u0131rla, “Tek hedefim Esad” de, biz de sana makul \u00f6rg\u00fct muamelesi yapal\u0131m, belki bir g\u00fcn kara listeden de \u00e7\u0131kars\u0131n. HT\u015e lideri Ebu Muhammed el Colani\u2019ye tak\u0131m elbise giydiren ak\u0131ldan s\u00f6z ediyoruz. Olacak i\u015f de\u011fil ama \u0130ngilizler ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere NATO ortaklar\u0131n\u0131n \u0130slamc\u0131sever sicilleri de ortada. Suriye\u2019de eli silahl\u0131 \u0130hvan ile i\u015ftigalleri 1970\u2019lere kadar uzan\u0131yor. Neyse laf\u0131 uzatmayal\u0131m.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u0130kinci yol; Erdo\u011fan, Esad\u2019la bar\u0131\u015fmak istiyorsa bu \u00f6rg\u00fctlerin fi\u015fini \u00e7ekmek zorunda kalacakt\u0131r. Silahl\u0131 gruplar\u0131 kamyonun alt\u0131na atman\u0131n en kestirme yolu ter\u00f6rist kimli\u011fi tescilli olan\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karmak, savunulmas\u0131 imkans\u0131z bir tablo olu\u015fturmak ve gerisini Suriye devletine b\u0131rakmak.
Ki\u015fisel kanaatim; Erdo\u011fan elini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirmek i\u00e7in HT\u015e ile SMO aras\u0131nda ortak komuta ve sivil idare olu\u015fturulmas\u0131n\u0131 tercih edebilir. Bu g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc yap\u0131y\u0131 Esad\u2019\u0131n kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda pazarl\u0131k masas\u0131na koymak isteyebilir. Tam Erdo\u011fan\u2019l\u0131k bir yakla\u015f\u0131m. \u00c7\u0131kar\u0131 varsa g\u00fcnah\u0131ndan da vazge\u00e7mez.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u015eimdi sahaya d\u00f6nd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fczde HT\u015e\u2019nin ko\u015fullar\u0131 ile ne yapmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Varmak istedikleri yer, s\u00f6z\u00fcn\u00fc etti\u011fim birinci yolla \u00e7eli\u015fmiyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
13 Ekim\u2019de HT\u015e, Bab el Heva s\u0131n\u0131r kap\u0131s\u0131nda T\u00fcrk yetkililerin himayesinde \u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc Kolordu komutanlar\u0131yla masaya oturdu. \u00d6zetle \u015fu ko\u015fullar\u0131 \u00f6ne s\u00fcrd\u00fc:<\/p>\n\n\n\n
– T\u00fcm askeri gruplar tek komuta alt\u0131nda birle\u015fsin. (M\u0130T\u2019in adamlar\u0131 bunun i\u00e7in y\u0131llard\u0131r u\u011fra\u015f\u0131yor-FT)
– Ortak komutay\u0131 kabul etmeyenlerin varl\u0131\u011f\u0131na izin verilemez.
– Askeri gruplar sivil idareden \u00e7ekilmeli. (Sivil idare, rant alan\u0131 demek-FT.)
– Yerle\u015fim merkezlerinde kurulan kontrol noktalar\u0131 kald\u0131r\u0131ls\u0131n. (Bunlar da hara\u00e7 kesme ve para toplama vesilesi-FT)
– Silahl\u0131 gruplar Esad g\u00fc\u00e7leri ve SDG ile kesi\u015fme noktalar\u0131na yerle\u015fsin.
– \u0130\u00e7 g\u00fcvenlik Kurtulu\u015f H\u00fck\u00fcmeti\u2019ne ba\u011fl\u0131 Genel Emniyet \u0130daresi\u2019ne b\u0131rak\u0131ls\u0131n.
– \u0130deolojik olarak Cey\u015f\u2019ul \u0130slam\u2019la ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 kim varsa Bar\u0131\u015f P\u0131nar\u0131 Harek\u00e2t b\u00f6lgesine yani Tel Ebyad ve Ras\u2019ul Ayn\u2019a g\u00f6nderilsin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Bu \u015fartlar\u0131n kabul edildi\u011fine dair gelen ilk haberler \u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc Kolordu taraf\u0131ndan yalanland\u0131. 16 Ekim\u2019de yine T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin g\u00f6zetiminde yap\u0131lan \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc toplant\u0131da taraflar s\u00f6zl\u00fc olarak uzla\u015ft\u0131. Ama bunu resmen a\u00e7\u0131klayan da olmad\u0131. Muhalif kaynaklardan gelen bilgiler b\u00f6yle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Bu \u015fartlar kabul edildi\u011finde fiilen olacak olan \u015fey HT\u015e\u2019nin dominant oldu\u011fu yeni bir saha. Yani ter\u00f6r \u00f6rg\u00fct\u00fc olarak listelenmi\u015f bir \u00f6rg\u00fct F\u0131rat Kalkan\u0131 ve Zeytin Dal\u0131 b\u00f6lgelerine sark\u0131yor. Erdo\u011fan\u2019\u0131n sahadaki adamlar\u0131 bunun pazarl\u0131\u011f\u0131na arac\u0131l\u0131k ediyor. Yarat\u0131c\u0131 rezillikten kast\u0131m bu. Manzaray\u0131 kurtarmak i\u00e7in SMO i\u00e7indeki Ahrar el \u015eam gibi birka\u00e7 \u00f6rg\u00fct \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kart\u0131labilir. Ahrar el \u015eam ile HT\u015e aras\u0131ndaki ili\u015fki a\u015fk-nefret ili\u015fkisi gibi. Ama bu ortakl\u0131k \u015fimdi iki tarafa da \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. Erdo\u011fan ve ekibinin bir zamanlar g\u00f6zdesi say\u0131lan Ahrar, HT\u015e\u2019den 2017\u2019de a\u011f\u0131r bir darbe yemi\u015fti. Bu y\u00fczden Ahrar i\u00e7inde b\u00f6l\u00fcnmeler ya\u015fand\u0131. Do\u011fu kanad\u0131 Cephut\u2019\u00fcl \u015eamiye\u2019nin liderli\u011findeki \u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc Kolordu\u2019ya kat\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu grup daha sonra yeni adreste de sorun ya\u015fay\u0131nca silahlar\u0131yla birlikte Ahrar\u2019a geri d\u00f6nmek istemi\u015fti. Bu y\u00fczden ge\u00e7en haziranda \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar patlak vermi\u015f ve Ahrar, HT\u015e\u2019yi yan\u0131nda bulmu\u015ftu. Bu yak\u0131nla\u015fmada Ahrar\u2019\u0131n liderlerinden Hasan Sufan\u2019\u0131n Colani ile ili\u015fkisi etkiliydi. Haziranda Afrin\u2019i ele ge\u00e7irmeye y\u00f6nelik ilk hamleyi durduran T\u00fcrk m\u00fcdahalesi gecikmemi\u015fti. Bu sefer durum farkl\u0131. D\u00fcn itibariyle HT\u015e\u2019yi \u00e7ekilmeye zorlayacak bir s\u00f6z ya da tav\u0131r g\u00f6r\u00fclmedi.
Son \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 tetikleyen olay da \u015fuydu: Silahl\u0131 gruplara ele\u015ftirileriyle bilinen aktivist Muhammed Ebu Ghanum ve hamile e\u015fi 7 Ekim\u2019de El Bab\u2019da \u00f6ld\u00fcr\u00fcld\u00fc. Cinayetten Hamza Tugay\u0131 sorumlu tutuluyordu. Colani yazdan beri HT\u015e\u2019nin kontrol\u00fcn\u00fc \u0130dlib\u2019in d\u0131\u015f\u0131na ta\u015f\u0131mak i\u00e7in haz\u0131rl\u0131k yap\u0131yordu ve bu olay da i\u015fin bahanesi oldu.
\u00c7at\u0131\u015fan taraflar aras\u0131nda anla\u015fma meselesi h\u00e2l\u00e2 bilinmezlikler bar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131yor. Ki d\u00fcn \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar yeniden alevlendi\u011finde taraflar\u0131n hen\u00fcz el s\u0131k\u0131\u015fmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ya da uygulaman\u0131n nas\u0131l olaca\u011f\u0131na dair uzla\u015fmazl\u0131\u011f\u0131n s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc anla\u015f\u0131ld\u0131. Bunu kendi sonlar\u0131 olarak g\u00f6ren gruplar direnebilirler. Tabii b\u00f6lgenin “koruyucu mele\u011fi” ne buyurur, kime el verir, kimi yok eder? Kim bilebilir! Bildi\u011fimiz \u015fey, Erdo\u011fan\u2019\u0131n bi\u00e7imsiz Suriye siyaseti de\u011fi\u015fim sanc\u0131s\u0131 \u00e7ekerken ter\u00f6r \u00f6rg\u00fctleriyle i\u015ftigali sorun olarak g\u00f6rmeyen al\u0131\u015fkanl\u0131klar ve pratikler tekrarlan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
18 Ekim 2022<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Fehim Ta\u015ftekin<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Gazete Duvar<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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